The correlation between this index and the real economic activity is very high. Notice that the EOCI index has now fallen to levels where the Federal Reserve has previously "loosened" monetary policy by adding accommodative measures such as "Quantitative Easing."Importantly, despite the Fed's assurances, the economy is clearly not strong enough to withstand a "tightening" of monetary policy by increasing interest rates. As you will also notice, not only have sharp drops in the EOCI index been coincident with far weaker economic activity, but also declines in asset prices as well. If They Don't "Buy & Hold" - Why Should You? Of course, these are just "warning signs."None them suggest that the markets, or the economy, are immediately plunging into the next recession-driven market reversion. But they are warning signs nonetheless. Past experience suggests that future returns are likely to be far less than historical averages suggest. Furthermore, there is a dramatic difference between investing for 30 years and whatever time you have left before you need your retirement funds intact. While much of the mainstream media suggests that you "invest for the long-term" and "buy and hold" regardless of what the market brings, that is not what professional investors are doing.As addressed recently by UBS: "Nothing is good in general. We are in an environment where nothing is good. At some point, it will disconnect, and it disconnects very aggressively.
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